{"id":290917,"date":"2023-02-06T16:24:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-06T08:24:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.um.edu.mo\/news-and-press-releases\/press-release\/detail\/55075-2\/"},"modified":"2023-03-13T11:33:21","modified_gmt":"2023-03-13T03:33:21","slug":"55075","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.um.edu.mo\/pt-pt\/news-and-press-releases\/press-release\/detail\/55075\/","title":{"rendered":"UM lan\u00e7a Previs\u00e3o Macroecon\u00f3mica para Macau 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n                        \n                        <p>The University\nof Macau (UM) Centre for Macau Studies (CMS) and Department of Economics have\nreleased the Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2023, estimating that\nthe economy will grow between 20.5% and 44.1%; exports of services will grow\nbetween 35.2% and 82.8%; and the final revenue of the Macao SAR government will\nremain at around MOP 55.4 billion to MOP 66.1 billion, in 2023. Macao&#8217;s\neconomic recovery is also expected to be more obvious, especially in the second\nhalf of the year.<\/p>\n\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n<p>Based on three\ndifferent scenarios, the research team has obtained the following forecasts:\nthe baseline forecast of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growths are 20.5%, to MOP\n211.8 billion (47.7% of 2019\u2019s level), in Scenario 1; 36.5%, to MOP 240 billion\n(54.0% of 2019\u2019s level), in Scenario 2; and 44.1%, to MOP 253.3 billion (67.0%\nof 2019\u2019s level), in Scenario 3, respectively (real growth rate, all absolute\nlevels calculated in chained (2020) dollars). The baseline forecast of growths\nin the exports of services are 35.2% in Scenario 1, 64.9% in Scenario 2, and\n82.8% in Scenario 3, respectively. The Macao SAR\ngovernment\u2019s current revenue in 2023 is expected to be MOP 55.4 billion in\nScenario 1, MOP 62.8 billion in Scenario 2, and MOP 66.1 billion in Scenario 3,\nrespectively. <\/p>\n\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n<p>In 2022, the\neconomy of Macao continued to shrink as a result of the impact of the pandemic\nand epidemic prevention policies. In the first quarter, the year-on-year GDP\nfell by 10.5%. Following the relatively large-scale emergence of infection\ncases in the local community in mid to late June, the year-on-year GDP collapsed by 39.0%\nin the second quarter, returning to the level of the second quarter of 2020.\nFrom mid-June to July 2022, subject to the influence of the implementation\nof lockdown measures, the year-on-year GDP decreased by 33.4% in\nthe third quarter.<\/p>\n\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n<p>As Macao has\nadjusted its epidemic prevention policies in December 2022, visitor arrivals\nare expected to increase in 2023. However, there are differences in the\nadaptability of the Macao society and the willingness of foreigners to visit\nMacao. In response to these differences, the research team has made three\ndifferent scenario assumptions. Scenario 1 has more cautious assumptions:\nvisitor arrivals are assumed to be 2.07 million in the first quarter (20% of 2019\u2019s\nlevel), 2.48 million in the second quarter (25% of 2019\u2019s level), 2.98 million\nin the third quarter (30% of 2019), and 3.22 million in the fourth quarter (35%\nof 2019\u2019s level). Scenario 2 has more optimistic assumptions: visitor arrivals are\nassumed to be 3.11 million in the first quarter (30% of 2019\u2019s level), 3.97\nmillion in the second quarter (40% of 2019\u2019s level), 4.96 million in the third\nquarter (50% of 2019\u2019s level), and 5.52 million in the fourth quarter (60% of 2019\u2019s\nlevel). Scenario 3 is even more optimistic when compared to Scenario 2,\nconsidering that visitor arrivals in the second half of 2023 will grow faster:\nvisitor arrivals in the first and second quarters are assumed to be the same as\nin Scenario 2, while visitor arrivals in the third quarter and the fourth\nquarter are assumed to be 6.94 million (70% of 2019\u2019s level), and 7.36 million\n(80% of 2019\u2019s level), respectively. The above scenarios all assume that there\nwill be no major changes in the epidemic situation that will lead to rapid\npolicy adjustment.<\/p>\n\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n<p>Based on the above three scenarios, the forecasts of major economic\nvariables are as follows:<\/p>\n\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n<p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nThe\nbaseline forecast of GDP growths are 20.5%, to MOP 211.8 billion (47.7% of 2019\u2019s level),\nin Scenario 1; 36.5%, to MOP 240 billion (54.0% of 2019\u2019s level), in Scenario 2;\nand 44.1%, to MOP 253.3 billion (67.0% of 2019\u2019s level), in Scenario 3, respectively.<\/p>\n\n<p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nThe\nbaseline forecast of growths in the exports of services are 35.2% in Scenario\n1, 64.9% in Scenario 2, and 82.8% in Scenario 3, respectively.<\/p>\n\n<p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nThe\nbaseline forecast of growths in private consumption expenditure are 6.3% to\n6.5%.<\/p>\n\n<p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nThe\nbaseline forecast of growths in total gross fixed capital formation are 2.4% in\nScenario 1, 4.6% in Scenario 2, and 5.0% in Scenario 3, respectively.<\/p>\n\n<p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nThe\ninflation rate measured by GDP deflator is expected to rise by 1.6% to 1.7%,\nand consumer price is expected to increase by 1.7% to 2.0%.<\/p>\n\n<p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nMedian\nmonthly employment earnings are expected to increase by 1.1% in Scenario 1,\n2.0% in Scenario 2, and 2.1% in Scenario 3, respectively.<\/p>\n\n<p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nUnemployment\nrate is projected to be 4.0% in Scenario 1, 3.8% in Scenario 2, and 3.7% in Scenario\n3, respectively. The unemployment rate for local residents is expected to be\n4.9% in Scenario 1, 4.7% in Scenario 2, and 4.5% in Scenario 3, respectively. <\/p>\n\n<p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nThe\nMacao SAR government\u2019s current revenue in 2023 is expected to be MOP 55.4\nbillion in Scenario 1, MOP 62.8 billion in Scenario 2, and MOP 66.1 billion in Scenario\n3, respectively.<\/p>\n\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n<p>Macao has finally reopened after nearly\nthree years of implementation of epidemic prevention and control measures.\nHowever, there will still be many challenges on the road to economic recovery.\nThe labour market is likely to be affected by lag effects of the pandemic in\nthe short term and they will hinder the growth of tourism-related industries.\nIn general, due to the low base effect in 2022, it is expected that Macao&#8217;s\neconomic recovery (especially in the second half of the year) will be more\nobvious this year.<\/p>\n\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n<p><b><u>About the\nMacroeconometric Structural Model of Macao<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n\n<p>The Macroeconometric Structural Model of\nMacao is a quarterly simultaneous-equations econometric model which covers\nseven aspects of Macao\u2019s economy: consumption, investment, the external sector,\nprices, government, the labour market, and the monetary sector. It includes 89\nequations and 296 variables. Time series data start from the first quarter of\n1998 and is updated once new data are available. Its results provide the\ncommunity with a timely understanding of the state of Macao\u2019s economy and\nsupport prudent decision-making. The model was founded by late Prof Sir James\nMirrlees, winner of the Nobel Prize in economic sciences and honorary doctor of\nsocial sciences of UM, as well as faculty members in the Department of\nEconomics of UM. Members of the research team include Dr Chan Chi Shing, adjunct\nlecturer in the CMS; Prof Ho Wai Hong, associate professor in the Department of\nEconomics; and Prof Kwan Fung, assistant professor in the Department of\nEconomics.<\/p><table style=\"width: 44.7597%;height: 201px\"> <tbody> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 100.095%\" colspan=\"2\">Source: Centre for Macau Studies&nbsp;<\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\"> <\/td> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\"> <\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 100.095%\" colspan=\"2\">Media Contact Information:<\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 12px;width: 100.095%\" colspan=\"2\">Communications Office, University of Macau<\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\"> <\/td> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\"> <\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\">Albee Lei<\/td> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\">Tel: (853) 8822 8004<\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\">Cathy Cheang<\/td> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\">Tel: (853) 8822 8009<\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\">Email:<\/td> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\"><a href=\"mailto:prs.media@um.edu.mo\">prs.media@um.edu.mo<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 21px\">\n<td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\"> <\/td> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\"> <\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\"><\/td><td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\"><\/td><\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n                        \n                        ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The University of Macau (UM) Centre for Macau Studies (CMS) and Department of Economics have released the Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2023, estimating that the economy will grow between 20.5%&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":293736,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-290917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-press-release"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>UM lan\u00e7a Previs\u00e3o Macroecon\u00f3mica para Macau 2023 | Universidade de Macau<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Universidade de Macau: Uma universidade abrangente p\u00fablica de n\u00edvel internacional fundada 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