{"id":260180,"date":"2022-01-26T15:20:00","date_gmt":"2022-01-26T07:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.um.edu.mo\/news-and-press-releases\/press-release\/detail\/53184-2\/"},"modified":"2022-02-23T12:00:18","modified_gmt":"2022-02-23T04:00:18","slug":"53184","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.um.edu.mo\/pt-pt\/news-and-press-releases\/press-release\/detail\/53184\/","title":{"rendered":"UM divulga a Previs\u00e3o Macroecon\u00f3mica para Macau 2022"},"content":{"rendered":"\n                        \n                        <p><a name=\"_Hlk517085785\"><\/a><a name=\"_Hlk19267251\">The University of Macau (UM) Centre for Macau\nStudies (CMS) and Department of Economics today (26 January) released the 2022\nMacroeconomic Forecast for Macao, estimating that the economy will grow between\n3.6% and 37.9% in 2022; exports of services will grow between 5.8% and 64.7%;\nand the final revenue of the Macao SAR government will remain at around MOP\n51.2 billion to MOP 65.9 billion.<\/a><\/p><p>In 2021, COVID-19 was still not fully under\ncontrol globally. The total number of visitors to Macao was 7.71 million, only\n19.6% of the figure in 2019. In the first three quarters of 2021, although the\noverall economy rebounded from the lowest in the corresponding period of 2020, the\ngrowth was of a lacklustre speed. The year-on-year growth was only 27.5%.\nCompared with the same period in 2020, with GDP shrinking by 58.0%, the recovery\nwas still far away. Amid the outbreak of the epidemic in Macao at the end of\nSeptember and early October, the SAR government further tightened travel\nrestrictions. As a result, the number of mainland visitors dropped\nsubstantially during the \u2018Golden Week\u2019 holiday period. Against this backdrop, UM\u2019s\nCMS and Department of\nEconomics have announced the 2022 Macao Macroeconomic Forecast, which is based\non the Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao. The results\nare as follows.<\/p><p>In view of the possible changes in the epidemic\nand government policies, the research team of\nthe Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao considered four different scenarios for the number of visitor arrivals\nin 2022, making allowance for different recovery speeds. The four scenarios\nare:<\/p><p>&nbsp;<\/p><p>Scenario 1: 9.9 million visitor arrivals;\n<\/p><p>Scenario 2: 13.8 million visitor\narrivals;<\/p><p>Scenario 3: 17.7 million visitor\narrivals; and,<\/p><p>Scenario 4: 21.7 million visitor\narrivals.<\/p><p>&nbsp;<\/p><p>Based on the above four scenarios, the\nforecasts of major economic variables are as follows:<\/p><p>&nbsp;<\/p><p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nThe\nbaseline forecast of Macao\u2019s economic growths are 3.6%, 15.3%, 26.2%, and 37.9% respectively.<\/p><p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nThe\nbaseline forecast of growths in the exports of services are 5.8%, 26.7%, 45.1%,\nand 64.7% respectively.<\/p><p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nThe\nbaseline forecast of growths in private consumption expenditure are about 1% in\nall four scenarios.<\/p><p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nThe\nbaseline forecast of growths in total gross fixed capital formation are 8.0%,\n9.3%, 11.3%, and 12.9% respectively.<\/p><p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nThe\ninflation rate measured by GDP deflator or consumer price is 1.8% to 2.9%.<\/p><p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nThe\ngrowth in median monthly employment earnings is 1.8% to 3.8%.<\/p><p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nUnemployment\nrate is projected to be between 2.6% to 3.0%. Excluding non-resident workers,\nthe unemployment rate for residents is expected to be 3.5% to 3.9%.<\/p><p>\u00b7&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;\nGovernment\nrevenues (transfer from government reserve excluded) is expected to be between\nMOP 51.2 billion and MOP 65.9 billion.<\/p><p>&nbsp;<\/p><p>Macao experienced a severe economic\ncontraction in 2020, followed by a lacklustre recovery in 2021. The Macao SAR\ngovernment has implemented various policies, especially for small and medium-sized\nenterprises, to support them through the crisis. However, enterprises are faced\nwith a lack of demand, and without a steady source of visitors, they are not be\nable to generate a steady income. Therefore, the government still has to face\nthe issue of how to speed up the vaccination process in Macao, so that tourism\ncontrol measures can be relaxed as soon as possible and tourists can return.<\/p><p>&nbsp;<\/p><p><b>About\nthe Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao<\/b><\/p><p>&nbsp;<\/p><p><a name=\"_Hlk517085785\"><\/a>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n<\/p><p>The Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao is a quarterly\nsimultaneous-equation econometric model which covers seven aspects of Macao\u2019s\neconomy: consumption, investment, the external sector, prices, government, the labour\nmarket, and the monetary sector. It includes 89 equations and 280 variables.\nTime series data start from the first quarter of 1998 and are updated once new\ndata are available. Its results provide the community with a timely\nunderstanding of the state of Macao\u2019s economy and support prudent\ndecision-making. The model was founded by the late Prof Sir James Mirrlees,\nwinner of the Nobel Prize in economic sciences and honorary doctor of social\nsciences of UM, as well as faculty members in the UM Department of Economics.\nProject members include Dr Chan Chi Shing, adjunct lecturer in the CMS; Prof Ho\nWai Hong, associate professor in the Department of Economics; and Prof Kwan\nFung, assistant professor in the Department of Economics.<\/p><p><\/p><table style=\"width: 44.7597%;height: 201px\"> <tbody> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 100.095%\" colspan=\"2\">Source:<a name=\"_Hlk19267251\" style=\"text-align: justify\">&nbsp;Centre for Macau Studies<\/a><\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\"> <\/td> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\"> <\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 100.095%\" colspan=\"2\">Media Contact Information:<\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 12px;width: 100.095%\" colspan=\"2\">Communications Office, University of Macau<\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\"> <\/td> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\"> <\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\">Albee Lei<\/td> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\">Tel: (853) 8822 8004<\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\">Cathy Cheang<\/td> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\">Tel: (853) 8822 8009<\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\">Email:<\/td> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\"><a href=\"mailto:prs.media@um.edu.mo\">prs.media@um.edu.mo<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 21px\">\n<td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\"> <\/td> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\"> <\/td> <\/tr> <tr style=\"height: 21px\"> <td style=\"height: 21px;width: 56.3278%;min-width: 120px\"><\/td><td style=\"height: 21px;width: 43.7669%\"><\/td><\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n                        \n                        ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The University of Macau (UM) Centre for Macau Studies (CMS) and Department of Economics today (26 January) released the 2022 Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao, estimating that the economy will grow&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":261994,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-260180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-press-release"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.5 - 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