{"id":194309,"date":"2017-01-20T20:36:05","date_gmt":"2017-01-20T12:36:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.um.edu.mo\/sem-categoria\/2017\/01\/40664-pt_pt\/"},"modified":"2017-01-20T20:36:05","modified_gmt":"2017-01-20T12:36:05","slug":"40664","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.um.edu.mo\/pt-pt\/news-and-press-releases\/press-release\/detail\/40664\/","title":{"rendered":"UM announces 2017 macroeconomic forecast for Macao"},"content":{"rendered":"

The University of Macau (UM) Department of\nEconomics released its Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2017 today. Macao\u2019s economy is beginning to recover. The growth of Macao\u2019s\nreal GDP turned positive, with a 4.0% year-on-year increase and MOP 86.7\nbillion recorded in the third quarter of 2016. It declined by 12.4% and 7.0% on\na year-on-year basis in the first and second quarters of 2016 respectively (Figure 1 and 2). Based on the forecast, Macao\u2019s economy will continue its steady growth in 2017.<\/p>\n\n

<\/a>     <\/p>\n\n

Macao\u2019s Economy in 201<\/u><\/b>6<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n\n

The\nMacroeconometric Structural Model of Macao was developed by the Nobel laureate Sir James Mirrlees as\nwell as Ho Wai Hung, Liu Chun Wah, Chan Chi Shing, and Kwan Fung from the UM Department\nof Economics. The following highlights the recent economic situations of the different\nsectors of Macao\u2019s economy:<\/p>\n\n

\u00b7        \nExternal demand for\nservices was mainly driven by mainland China. With real estate and industrial production growing in 2016, Chinese visitors\u2019 spending in Macao, in particular on gaming activities,\nwent up again. With close to 3-year adjustment, the exports of services were MOP\n64.9 billion, up 3.3% on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter of 2016.\nMeanwhile, the exports of services in gaming, the largest portion of the\nexports of services, were MOP 41.4 billion, an year-on-year increase of 0.2%.<\/p>\n\n

\u00b7        \nIn the third quarter of 2016,\nthe nominal gross gaming revenue was MOP 55.2 billion, up 1.1% year-on-year and\n6.5% quarter-on-quarter. Revenue from the VIP baccarat was 28.6 MOP billion, down\n1.2% year-on-year and up 7.7% quarter-on-quarter.<\/p>\n\n

\u00b7        \nIn November 2016, total visitor arrivals were 2.59\nmillions, same as the previous year. Visitors from mainland China recorded 1.71\nmillions, down 1.2% year-on-year and visitors from Hong Kong were 0.51 millions, down 1.4% year-on-year.<\/p>\n\n

\u00b7        \nExports of goods began to decline in the fourth\nquarter of 2015. In the third quarter of 2016,\nthe exports of goods continued to shrink. It declined by 15.6% year-on-year to MOP 2.8 billion. The export of textile products\nand non-textile goods went down by 16.5% and 1.9% year-on-year respectively. <\/p>\n\n

\u00b7        \nFor the third quarter of\n2016, the imports of goods declined by 7.3% year-on-year to MOP 24.8 billion. With\nthe growing demand for gaming services, imports of services increased by 6.2%\nyear-on-year to MOP 7.8 billion.<\/p>\n\n

\u00b7        \nWithin the imports of\ngoods, consumer goods decreased by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of\n2016 amid a sluggish growth in consumer spending. Meanwhile, raw material and\nsemi-manufactures shrank by 32.2% year-on-year with\nthe decline in exports of goods. Capital goods decreased by 6.8% year-on-year. <\/p>\n\n

\u00b7        \nFaced with sluggish growth\nin earnings, Macao’s local residents became cautious in spending, in particular\non durable goods. Private consumption expenditure was MOP 22.4 billion, up 0.3% year-on-year in the third\nquarter of 2016. The household final consumption expenditure\nin domestic market and the expenditure abroad increased by 0.5% and 4.5% year-on-year respectively.<\/p>\n\n

\u00b7        \nPrivate gross fixed capital\nformation increased by 2.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2016 to MOP 19.5 billion with the opening of new major hotels and casinos in this\nquarter. Meanwhile, government gross fixed capital\nformation grew by 1.8% year-on-year. Total gross\nfixed capital formation increased by 2.3% to MOP 20.9 billion. Private\nconstruction investment and private equipment investment grew by 1.3% and 11.2% year-on-year respectively.  <\/p>\n\n

\u00b7        \nReal estate transaction activity was\nslower in the third quarter of 2016. The total number of resident units purchased\nand sold was 2,399, amounting to MOP 14.5 billion, down 19.5% and 4.8% respectively quarter-to-quarter. The average\ntransaction price of the residential units rose by 12.8% quarter-to-quarter to MOP 86,564 per square meter. The average transaction price of the residential\nunits with an area of 50 to 99.9 square meters registered an increase of 6.2% quarter-to-quarter to MOP 81,195 per square meter\nrespectively.  <\/p>\n\n

\u00b7        \nInflation rate went down amid\nsluggish demand from local residents. The Composite Consumer Price Index in November 2016 rose by 1.5% year-on-year. For the two largest components of the Composite Consumer\nPrice Index, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and housing and fuel, their year-on-year\ngrowth rates were 2.1% and -1.4% respectively. For the aggregate economy, in tandem with the slowdown of consumer price, the GDP deflator increased by 0.2% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2016.<\/p>\n\n

\u00b7        \nThe labour market has been\nstable. Unemployment rate for the third quarter of\n2016 was 1.9%, same as in the third quarter of 2015. Excluding non-resident\nworkers, the unemployment rate for local residents was 2.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from\nthe third quarter of 2015.<\/p>\n\n

\u00b7        \nThe total employment and employment\nfor local residents were 394.2 thousand and 208.8 thousand in the third quarter of 2016, down 0.2% and up 1.2% year-on-year respectively. By industry, employment in wholesales & retails was 45.6 thousand, up 2.2% year-on-year amid slow growth in local\nspending and employment in hotels & restaurants was 54.8 thousand, up 6.6% year-on-year amid new hotel openings. Employment in construction was 45.1 thousand, a decrease of 14.7% year-on-year along with the finalization\nin new casinos and hotels. Employment in the gaming\nindustry was 80.5 thousand, down 4.4% year-on-year.<\/p>\n\n

\u00b7        \nMedian monthly employment earnings\nwere about MOP 15,000 in the third quarter of 2016, same as in the third quarter of 2015. For the gaming sector which accounted for the largest share of the\nemployed population, median monthly employment earnings were about MOP 19,000, same as in the third quarter of 2015. The median monthly employment\nearnings for the other major industries such as wholesales & retails were about\nMOP 12,000, same as in the third quarter of 2015 while the median monthly employment earnings for hotels &\nrestaurants were about MOP 10,000, up 5.3% year-on-year.   <\/p>\n\n

Macroeconomic Forecast for 201<\/u><\/b>6<\/u><\/b>-201<\/u><\/b>7<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n\n

According\nto the IMF forecasts in October 2016, global growth is projected to grow at a\nrate of 3.4% in 2017, reflecting a more subdued outlook for advanced economies\nfollowing political uncertainties in the United States and European Union. US\nGDP is expected to expand at 2.2% and the Euro Area is likely to grow slightly at\n1.5%. For mainland China, the GDP growth rate has been stable at 6.7% in the\nthird quarter of 2016. This caused Hong Kong, another major market of Macao\u2019s\nservice exports, to have a slower growth. It grew by 1.9% in the third quarter\nof 2016. The US Fed has raised its interest rate again in December 2016 and is\nexpected to continue the increase in 2017. The European Central Bank continued\nits Quantitative Easing to mitigate the possibility of recession and deflation\nin the eurozone. Mainland China\u2019s GDP is expected to grow at a comparable pace\nin 2017 amid the Central government\u2019s attempt to stabilise mainland China\u2019s\neconomic growth.  <\/p>\n\n

With\nreal estate and industrial production growing up in 2016, Chinese visitors\u2019 gaming spending in Macao went up again. As mainland\nChina is expected to have stabilised growth in 2017, Macao’s exports of\nservices are expected to increase by 2.5% in 2017. Exports of goods declined drastically\nin 2016 and are expected to decrease by 7.6%\nin 2017. Concomitant with the slowdown in local consumption, imports of goods are\nexpected to reduce by 0.2% in 2017. Amid the rise in\nexports of services, the imports of services will expand. The growth rates of\nimports of services are expected to increase by 4.0% in 2017.<\/p>\n\n

For\ndomestic demand, growth in private consumption spending continued to slow down\nin 2016, in particular on durable goods. It is expected to grow at 1.8% in 2017. Constructions in new casinos and hotels are expected to\ncontinue and total investment is expected to grow 3.8% in 2017. <\/p>\n\n

Inflation,\nas measured by the change in the Composite Consumer Price Index, is expected to\ncontinue to decline amid sluggish demand from local residents. It is expected\nto be 2.1% in 2017. For the aggregate economy, the GDP\nprice deflator is forecast to increase by 2.2% in 2017.<\/p>\n\n

The\nlabour market became stable. Unemployment rate is forecast to be 2.0% in 2017.\nExcluding non-resident workers, the unemployment rate of local residents is\nexpected to be 2.6% in 2017. Median monthly employment earnings are forecast to\nincrease\nby 1.2% in 2017.<\/p>\n\n

For\nthe overall economy, Macao\u2019s GDP is expected to increase by 3.2%, ranging from a pessimistic forecast of -6.9% to an optimistic rate 13.2% in 2017, according to\nthe Macroeconometric Structural Model of Macao. Data and our forecast indicate\nthe possibility of continuous adjustment of Macao\u2019s growth in 2017. Given that\nthe gross gaming revenue is highly influenced by government policies and may\nadjust greatly throughout the year, reflected in short-term fluctuations. We\nwill update the forecast to reflect the possible adjustment.<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n\n

About the Macroeconometric\nStructural Model of Macao<\/u><\/b><\/p>\n\n

The\nMacroeconometric Structural Model of Macao is a quarterly\nsimultaneous-equations econometric model which currently includes 88 equations\nand 162 variables covering seven blocks of the Macao economy — consumption,\ninvestment, external sector, prices, government, labour market, and monetary\nsector. Time series data used starts from the first quarter of 1998 and is\nupdated once new data are available. Its results provide the community with a\ntimely understanding of the state of Macao\u2019s economy and helps decision-makers\nto make prudent choices for the future.<\/p>\n\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n
\n

Table: Forecasts of Major Economic Variables<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2012<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2013<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2014<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2015<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2016<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2017<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Level<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

(Actual)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

(Actual)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

(Actual)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

(Actual)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

(Forecast)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

(Forecast)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Gross\n Domestic Product (Billion of 2014 MOP)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

402.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

447.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

442.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

346.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

331.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

342.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Private\n Consumption Expenditure (Billion of 2014 MOP)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

78.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

83.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

88.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

90.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

90.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

91.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Gross\n Fixed Capital Formation (Billion of 2014 MOP)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

55.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

60.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

83.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

87.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

75.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

77.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Exports of\n Goods (Billion of 2014 MOP)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

11.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

11.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

14.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

15.7<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

12.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

11.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Exports of\n Services (Billion of 2014 MOP)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

336.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

381.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

361.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

259.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

248.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

254.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Imports of\n Goods (Billion of 2014 MOP)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

81.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

95.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

108.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

109.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

97.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

97.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Imports of\n Services (Billion of 2014 MOP)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

30.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

29.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

31.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

31.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

31.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

32.7<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

GDP\n Deflator (2013 = 100)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

85.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

91.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

100.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

104.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

105.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

107.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

CPI\n (Composite) (October 2013-September 2014 = 100)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

90.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

95.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

101.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

105.7<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

108.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

110.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Median\n Monthly Employment Earnings (MOP)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

11,300<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

12,000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

13,300<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

15,000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

15,137<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

15,321<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Employment\n (Thousand Persons)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

343.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

361.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

388.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

396.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

392.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

396.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n<\/tbody><\/table>\n\n

 <\/p>\n\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n
\n

Table\n (Continued) : Forecasts of Major Economic Variables<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2012<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2013<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2014<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2015<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2016<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2017<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Year-on-Year Growth\n Rate (%)<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

(Actual)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

(Actual)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

(Actual)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

(Actual)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

(Forecast)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

(Forecast)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Lower<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-6.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-6.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Gross Domestic\n Product<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Baseline<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

9.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

11.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-1.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-21.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-4.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

3.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Upper<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-2.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

13.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Lower<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-1.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-3.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Private Consumption\n Expenditure<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Baseline<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

7.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

6.7<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

5.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-0.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

1.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Upper<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

0.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

6.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Lower<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-19.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-23.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Gross Fixed Capital\n Formation<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Baseline<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

20.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

9.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

37.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

5.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-14.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

3.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Upper<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-9.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

31.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Lower<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-22.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-23.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Exports of Goods<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Baseline<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

30.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

7.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

20.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

10.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-18.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-7.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Upper<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-14.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

8.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Lower<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-6.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-8.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Exports of Services<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Baseline<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

9.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

13.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-5.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-28.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-4.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Upper<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-2.7<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

12.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Lower<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-12.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-9.7<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Imports of Goods<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Baseline<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

14.7<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

16.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

14.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

0.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-10.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-0.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Upper<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-9.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

9.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Lower<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-2.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-6.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Imports of Services<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Baseline<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

13.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-4.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

6.7<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

0.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

1.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

4.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Upper<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

4.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

14.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Lower<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

0.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-1.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

GDP Deflator Growth\n Rate <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Baseline<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

7.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

7.7<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

8.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

4.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

0.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Upper<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

1.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

5.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Lower<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

0.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

CPI (Composite)\n Inflation Rate<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Baseline<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

6.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

5.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

6.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

4.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.1<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Upper<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

4.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Lower<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

0.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

-3.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Median Monthly\n Employment Earnings<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Baseline<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

13.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

6.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

10.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

12.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

0.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

1.2<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Upper<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

1.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

5.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Lower<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

1.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

1.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Unemployment Rate <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Baseline<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

1.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

1.7<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

1.8<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

1.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.0<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Upper<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

1.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

\u3000<\/b><\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Lower<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

1.9<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

Unemployment Rate<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Baseline<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.3<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.5<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.6<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n

\n

(Local Residents)<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

Upper<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

2.7<\/p>\n <\/td>\n

\n

3.4<\/p>\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n<\/tbody><\/table>\n\n

 <\/p>

<\/p>

Source: Faculty of Social Sciences <\/div>

<\/p>

<\/p>

<\/p>

<\/p>

Media Contact Information:
Communications Office, University of Macau<\/p>

<\/p>

<\/p>

<\/p>

<\/p>

<\/p>

<\/p>

<\/p>

Albee Lei  Tel\uff1a(853) 88228004
Kelvin U  Tel\uff1a(853) 88224322
Email\uff1aprs.media@um.edu.mo
UM Website\uff1awww.umac.mo<\/p><\/div>

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The University of Macau (UM) Department of Economics released its Macroeconomic Forecast for Macao 2017 today. Macao\u2019s economy is beginning to recover. The growth of Macao\u2019s real GDP turned positive,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":126566,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-194309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-press-release"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUM announces 2017 macroeconomic forecast for Macao | Universidade de Macau<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Universidade de Macau: Uma universidade abrangente p\u00fablica de n\u00edvel internacional fundada em 1981\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.um.edu.mo\/pt-pt\/news-and-press-releases\/press-release\/detail\/40664\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_PT\" \/>\n<meta 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