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Articles:
Relationship Between the Housing Vacancy Rate, Housing Price, and the Moving Rate at the Township Level in Taiwan, in 1990 and 2000 Authors: Li-Min Hsueh, Hsi-Peng Tseng and Chang-Chiang Hsieh Start Page:
119 Abstract:
In this research, cross-sectional
data for the township level obtained from the 1990 and 2000 Population and
Housing Census are used to study the phenomenon of high housing vacancy
rates in Taiwan. Three simultaneous equations for housing price, vacancy
rate, and moving rate are derived and estimated using 3SLS. The estimation
results show that, in 1990, in a booming market situation, both expected
housing price and current housing price had a strong, positive impact on the
vacancy rate; however, the housing vacancy rate did not display a negative
impact on housing price as expected. The results for 2000 show that housing
price did not significantly affect the vacancy rate; however, the vacancy
rate had a negative impact on housing price that was highly statistically
significant. This result reflected the fact that housing market operation
had swung to another extreme after the real estate bubble that started in
the late 1980s and burst in the mid-1990s. The natural vacancy rate for each
township can be obtained from the estimation results. The average rate for
2000 was 0.11 to 0.12, compared to an actual vacancy rate of 0.158, which
implied that 75% of townships had an excess supply of housing. Only Taipei
City, Kaohsiung City and townships in areas inhabited by Taiwan?s indigenous
peoples had, on average, a relatively low excess supply rate. |
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